Gm. This is MF Lending - the cool uncle of mortgage newsletters. We’re the fool-proof way to serve up mortgage and real estate market knowledge without any of the guesswork. So you’ll look like the smartest agent in the room (and you are!)

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

1. Birthday celebration for the FED 🎂

2. Why today is the best time to buy a house for the next decade

3. Dates to Mark on Your Gcal 📆

Nuwave Rates Today 📉

Happy Birthday to FED Rate Hikes 🎉

The month of March marks the one-year anniversary since the Federal Reserve started aggressively hiking interest rates.

We should continue to see these rate hikes through ~ at least ~ the midway point of 2023. Expect rates higher for longer.

3 Reasons Why This is the Best Time to Purchase a House in the Last Decade

Spoiler - it has nothing to do with rates.

1. Home prices are declining

2. Home prices typically recover quickly

3. Use the market today as an opportunity

1. Home prices are declining

There is strong data from BlackKnight suggesting that YOY home prices may fall to a negative number for the first time since 2012. So, we may be quickly approaching the bottom of the market.

Here’s a hard pill to swallow - neither you, nor I, nor your all-knowing principal broker are going to be able to predict the bottom of this market.

This leaves your client with two options - buy in the downswing (when sellers are fearful) or buy in the upswing (when sellers are gaining confidence).

2. Home Prices Recover Quickly

The best way to conceptualize this is to look at the previous market bottom - February 2012:

After hitting the bottom of the market, home prices recovered quickly. In the 12 months following the bottom - prices rose 8%.

This was when inventory was at 2.4M. Today, the inventory level is at 980k - with only 578k as actual listings.

Inventory levels are 75% lower than they were in the last market bottom. So there is reason to believe once the bottom is hit, prices could rise faster and higher with basic supply and demand pressures.

3. Use the current market as an opportunity

🎉 Congrats you just made your client $15,320 in additional equity because you are a big-brained agent.

On top of that, after the refinance to 5.5% - your client is at the same monthly payment you would be when you looked to purchase in 2024. But this time he or she doesn’t have to deal with a multiple-offer situation.

Key Dates to Mark on your GCal & Potential Impacts

1. Wednesday - 3/8 - Jobs Report Release [Impact: Lowering Rates]

2. Friday - 3/10 - Unemployment Rate [Impact: Lowering Rates]

3. Tuesday - 3/14 - CPI Print [Impact: TBD]

That’s all we have for today. If you like this new format please share it with your team 🙂