Morning! This is MF Lending - we’re the fool-proof way to serve up mortgage and real estate market knowledge without any of the guesswork. So you’ll look like the smartest agent in the room (and you are!)

Today is your index day 🤓:

1. PSA - home prices are rising and the media is wrong: FHFA & Case-Shiller Reports 🔎

2. Pending Home Sales Report 🔎

By the way, this article on Realtor Confidence Index is the most clicked link in this newsletter, you should check it out if you are interested.

Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe to get it directly!

Nuwave Rates Today 📈

PSA - home prices are rising and the media is wrong

The media’s ability to manipulate data and push inaccurate narratives is truly shocking.

If you are an agent, you most likely got some sort of notice from your preferred lender, broker, or even a client, sourcing the FHFA & Case-Shiller report released Tuesday.

The headline of the report (and several media headlines across the country) was “home prices fell 0.2% YOY in April for the first time in eleven years”.

But wait…on a month-over-month basis, home prices actually rose 0.53%. Despite what clients may be seeing on the news - home prices are not going down.

Today, home prices stand only 2.4% below their peak in June 2022. 

On top of all of this, the Case-Shiller & FHFA Indexes are a lagging indicator of about two months. The April figures are based on April sales, meaning the clients went under contract and made their purchasing decisions in February and March.

Think about the housing market we saw this winter - it was nothing like the market today.

For agents that I speak with in the field every day, they have seen the housing market catch fire over the last 30 days.

None of the acceleration or bidding wars we are seeing today will be reflected in these indexes until August & September data.

Based on my conversations, I expect home prices to climb closer to the June 2022 peaks, even with higher mortgage rates. It is almost guaranteed that this “.2% YOY decline” will be erased in a matter of weeks when the next Case-Shiller is released.

Pending Home Sales Down in May

Pending Home Sales Price Index was released this morning. Here are the highlights:

This further emphasizes the inventory issue in the market today. This decline in pending home sales, in my opinion, has nothing to do with buyer demand. It has everything to do with the lack of homes for sale.

The Cul-de-Sac

Thanks for reading - that is all we have for today 😎

Please forward this to your friends and colleagues if you found it valuable.

— Michael F DiLucchio