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Happy Easter & Masters Weekend for those who celebrated 🐰⛳️

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

1. Nashville Local Housing Stats - March ‘23 🧮

2. Buyer Sentiment at All-Time Lows ❄️

3. Jobs Report - What Does This Mean for Interest Rates? 👨🏻‍💻

By the way, this article on The Best Email Tool I Use Daily is the most clicked link in this newsletter, you should check it out if you are interested.

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Nuwave Rates Today 📈

Nashville Local Housing Stats March ‘23 🧮

Bill McBride of CalculatedRisk tracks 40 local housing markets in the US. Here is the first look at the numbers from March.

Nashville Numbers:

Considering what we all see on the ground, the YOY comparisons remain staggering - Inventory is up +169% YOY.

Can someone remind me if any houses were for sale in Apr of ‘22?

The promising news is that we saw MOM inventory rise 20.7%. Inventory is something we desperately need in this market.

Anecdotally, I have conversations daily with clients who are reentering the local housing market - even with the rates where they are today.

These clients understand the expected payments on the homes and are still moving forward. Inventory is the factor holding them back.

What are you seeing in the market? Are there consistent factors holding your clients back? Comment below, I want to hear from you all.

Consumer Sentiment Remains at All-Time Lows

80% of consumers think it is a bad time to buy. 

This should instill an opportunity, not fear, into your home buyers.

I feel like I continue to shout this from a mountaintop every week - right now is the best time to buy a home.

Not only are other buyers removing themselves from the market, but 60% of sellers think it is a good time to sell.

If you are a buyer, especially in Nashville, you have unbelievable leverage in transactions.

Additionally, we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel for mortgage rates. I believe these will start falling as early as May 10. Reigniting a hot market as we roll into the late summer/fall.

Jobs Report - Implications For Interest Rates 🔎

The Jobs Report was released Friday, Apr 7. The numbers were close to expectations.

This report is truly a mixed bag for mortgage bonds.

How does this impact mortgage rates?

According to CME FED Watch the probability of the FED raising rates by 25bps during their May 3rd meeting jumped to 68.7%.

Since the recent FED meeting, rates have been slowly coming down to just over 6%. If the projections (below) hold true, we could see the market rates rise again toward the 6.5% barrier as we move into the summer.

What could change these expectations?

On Wednesday, Apr 12th, we get the CPI print.

If this print shows any indication of inflation slowing, or lower than expectations, we could see these projections from the FED change to a stance of holding rates where they are.

Keep an eye out for our Thursday Edition for a full look at the CPI Print.

The Cul-de-Sac

Mark your Calendar 📆

1. Apr 12th - CPI Print

2. May 3rd - FED Meeting

Thanks for reading - that is all we have for today 😎

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— Michael F DiLucchio