In partnership with

Morning! This is MF Lending - the fool-proof way to serve up mortgage and real estate market knowledge without any of the guesswork. So you’ll look like the smartest agent in the room (and you are!)

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

1. Simple Rate Update: Drifting Sideways ⛵

2. Rate Projections: The End of the Tunnel 🚆

3. Videos of the Week 🎥 (#1 can save your clients money)

By the way, this article on June CPI Print is the most clicked link in this newsletter, you should check it out if you are interested.

Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe to get it directly!

[Read Time: 4-5 min]

Rates Today 📈

Simple Rate Update: Drifting Sideways ⛵

Mortgage rates have been drifting sideways for more than two weeks. We have continuously been in this 6.75% - 6.875% window with little to no movement.

This comes, mostly, from the lack of economic news in the market. The last big move we saw was June 12th when CPI hit the market.

Fortunately, the remaining days of July do not have much left in store for us. The big ticket items (CPI, Jobs Report, etc.) all come the first two weeks of August. I do not expect much movement in either direction until then - even with the Fed meeting on the 31st.

This may be the longest period of steadiness we have seen all year. For clients who are out in the market looking, the good news is that they aren’t getting calls from their lender about adjusting the preapproval. Everything looks the same as it did in mid-June - and I expect that until early August.

-

[TLDR: Mortgage rates have been stable between 6.75% and 6.875% for over two weeks. The next major updates are expected in early August. Enjoy the stability.]

Rate Projections: The End of the Tunnel 🚆

It has felt like ten years since I got to say this - with several false alarms along the way - we have reached the light at the end of the tunnel.

Here are the rate projcetions as probabilities from CME Group who forecasts Fed moves:

July: 95% - Rates will be held steady - this gives the Fed one more CPI print to cement their decision

September: 100% - Rate cut (25bps) - there it is…the first rate cut.

November: 65% - 2nd cut

December: 98% - 2nd cut ; 60% - 3rd cut

—

That is our roadmap.

These cuts will all be at 25bps increments, so before you go on instagram live and announce rates are falling back to 4%, know that this will be a steady descent.

A 25bp rate cut in September, means that mortgage rates will start flirting with the 6.5% range.

A second cut (with a 3rd projected early 2025), could mean we start seeing 6.00% - 5.875% by January/Feb ‘25.

—

What does this mean for realtors?

It means that the winter may not be as relaxing as normal. Inventory in Nashville and across the country has been on the rise, but as we saw in the home sales data - sales fell 5.4%.

If we see rates fall below 6.5%, I anticipate a ton of buyers reentering the market to purchase the existing inventory. I would not be suprised to see higher-than-normal home sales for the winter months.

Videos of the Week 🎥

BEWARE: Wire Fraud is real - CALL your title company to verify your wiring instrcutions - do not trust an email -

Your IRA, made to order

Choose where and when you want to retire, and a Betterment IRA can help make your money hustle all the way there.

Learn more

Thanks for reading - that is all we have for today 😎

Please forward this to your friends and colleagues if you found it valuable.

— Michael F DiLucchio