Morning! This is MF Lending - the fool-proof way to serve up mortgage and real estate market knowledge without any of the guesswork. So you’ll look like the smartest agent in the room (and you are!)

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

1. What to Watch For This Week 🗺️

2. HousingWire’s analysis of the housing market 📺

3. Economists’ predictions through March 2024 📝

By the way, this article on Punches to Bond Market Continue is the most clicked link in this newsletter, you should check it out if you are interested.

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Nuwave Rates Today 📈

What to Watch For This Week 🗺️

This week will be led by the central bank’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fed policymakers, including Jerome Powell, will make a series of announcements on the state of the economy and whether inflationary pressures continue.

I’d expect volatility throughout the week. Bond traders will be jostling for positions prior to the Fed comments and with a lack of liquidity in the market, the trades that happen move the market significantly.  

If you notice the mortgage interest rates above this morning, rates are, once again, higher with bonds taking a 45bp hit.

Other notable economic data being released this week are:

• Existing Home Sales for July - 8/22

• New Home Sales for July - 8/23

• Initial Jobless Claims - 8/24

HousingWire’s analysis of the housing market 📺

Economists’ predictions through March 2024 📝

Reuters polled economists to get their predictions on the Fed moves through Q1 of 2024. Here are the results:

• A slight majority expect the Fed to wait at least through end-March before cutting rates

• Median probability of recession within a year fell to 40%

• 90% say the Fed will keep the federal funds rate the same (5.25%-5.5%) in September

• 80% expect no further rate rises this year

• 83% forecast the Fed will go for its first cut by mid-2024 (47% believe it to be in Q1)

The Cul-de-Sac

Thanks for reading - that is all we have for today 😎

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— Michael F DiLucchio