Morning! This is MF Lending - the fool-proof way to serve up mortgage and real estate market knowledge without any of the guesswork. So you’ll look like the smartest agent in the room (and you are!)

Here’s what we’ve got for you today:

1. Volatile Week Ahead: What to Expect 🌋

2. Clips this Week 🎥

By the way, this article on April’s CPI Print is the most clicked link in this newsletter, you should check it out if you are interested.

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[Read Time: 2-3 min]

Rates Today 📉

~ we have seen rates steadily decline since May 1st. Rates have come down nearly .5% from the peak Apr 30th ~

Volatile Week Ahead: What to Expect 🌋

April CPI will be printed on Wednesday morning. This report consistently sends shockwaves through the bond market.

After the Fed meeting in April, investors' hopes of falling rates this summer all but disappeared. Powell made it clear that until there was better data indicating a slowing economy or job market, there would be no need to start the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.

We continue to sit on our hands waiting for that better data to come.

According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate cut in September is 65%. In July, it is 30%.

If we have any hope of easing rates this summer, we would need extremely positive news in the CPI report Wednesday.

—

For clients who secured a contract over the weekend, they have a tough decision to make.

Option 1 - Lock in the rate now.

Option 2 - Ride the bull and hope CPI is not bad news.

Personally, I’d err on the side of caution (option 1). If CPI is bad news, this market is going to have some serious whiplash.

We have seen improvement in the bond market daily since May 1st. But this one report can erase all the gains we have made.

If I were advising a friend, I would tell them to lock in today and solidify the gains from May.

I’ll give an update on my Instagram story - mf.lending - on Wednesday morning if you want the breaking news. 🪩🪩

Clips this Week 🎥

Thanks for reading - that is all we have for today 😎

Please forward this to your friends and colleagues if you found it valuable.

— Michael F DiLucchio